Credit: Mike McMahon/Washington PostJust when it appeared things couldn’t get crazier in Albany, news broke on Sunday that the White House was encouraging New York Governor David Paterson to bypass his 2010 re-election campaign.   Most media coverage regarding the Obama administration’s decision has centered on Paterson’s 20% approval ratings; but given how this economic downturn has ravaged most states, one is hard pressed to find a sitting governor who is currently thriving in poll numbers. 

Consider for example Paterson’s republican counterpart in California, Arnold Schwarzenneger, who has seen unemployment rise to historic highs in his state, a virtually complete collapse of the housing market in certain districts, and a budget shortfall so profound that the state recently began issuing ious.  Even a popular governor in a state that has been faring well like Utah’s Jon Huntsman decided to forego completing his term, and instead opted for a post in the rival party’s administration as Ambassador to China. Without disregarding Governor Paterson’s missteps since taking office, it is not farfetched to point out that his problems are not endemic to him as an individual.  Rather it more likely the case that as the person in charge of running the state, he bears the brunt of critiques when New York is not faring well. 

What has been surprising about this latest imbroglio over Governor Paterson’s future in office is how Kirsten Gillibrand, the person whose political fate national Democratic party leaders have been trying to ensure has conspicuously managed to avoid any attention in this saga.  Gillibrand, New York’s junior senator who was heavily endorsed for this senate seat by senior senator Chuck Schumer, is a key figure in the Democrats aspirations to retain their majority in the senate.  State Democratic officials have already worked to push back Rep. Carolyn Maloney and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer’s ambitions to challenge Gillibrand in the primary.  Now, Obama officials, particularly a Clinton era veteran like chief of staff Rahm Emmanuel, who are determined to avoid a repeat of a mid-term Republican rally in next year’s elections like the one that enabled the GOP to place an insurmountable firewall against then President Bill Clinton in 1994 have thrown themselves into operation Save Kirsten.  Conventional wisdom has it that Gillibrand’s chances are enhanced if New York’s 2010 Democratic ticket features a popular leader at the helm. 

Of course conventional wisdom is effective except only when it isn’t, as in, again turning to 1994 when a relatively unknown Republican candidate George Pataki unseated three-term governor Mario Cuomo.  That year’s senate race in New York was a foregone conclusion with Democratic senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan easily retaining his seat.  What is instructive however, is that two years later, during a relatively stable period in New York politics, where you had a popular Republican Mayor in New York City, Rudy Giuliani and a republican incumbent in the Governor’s mansion, Chuck Schumer managed to upset Alfonse D’Amato. All of which is to say, when does conventional wisdom actually apply to New York politics?

Gillibrand’s own tenuous position in office explains her unwillingness to enter this fracas.  Schumer however does have copious amounts of political capital to expend.  Given his role in lobbying Paterson for Gillibrand, his decision to not offer more support for Paterson has been rather telling.  In effect Schumer has already answered the broader question New Yorkers are being asked to consider, which is not simply whether they favor Andrew Cuomo over David Paterson, but whether they are willing to sacrifice Paterson for a Cuomo and Gillibrand combination. 

Cuomo, like Paterson, the scion of a New York political dynasty is clearly able to read the tealeaves.  Also like Paterson, Cuomo knows that New York’s tempestuous Democratic political establishment has potentially half-a-dozen more script and casting edits before this show is ready to hit the road.  Moreover, Cuomo’s coy approach toward revealing his gubernatorial aspirations suggests that he’s well aware that he’s a minor figure in this drama.  In a sense, Cuomo is Ariel to Paterson’s Caliban. This of course suggests that Gillibrand is Miranda, and Schumer is Prospero in this New York State Democratic adaptation of The Tempest. 

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